2026 Kentucky Derby Betting Hub: Contenders, Trends, Preps, & Picks
Updated weekly with contender rankings, prep race previews, Derby points standings, and betting strategy analysis.
🏇 Latest Kentucky Derby Analysis
The road to the Kentucky Derby is constantly evolving. From emerging 3-year-olds to established prep winners, we track the contenders shaping the 2026 field. (Updated Weekly)
→ Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders (Video)
A current ranking of the leading Derby prospects, including form analysis, speed figures, and development outlook. Updated every week.
→ 5 Emerging Kentucky Derby Sleepers
A look at possible up and coming horses to watch for in prep races on the road to the Kentucky Derby
→ Kentucky Derby Power Rankings
See how the field is starting to stack up. Our latest Kentucky Derby Power Rankings break down the top contenders based on speed figures, prep race strength, pace profile, and distance pedigree.
→ John Battaglia Memorial Preview & Picks | Derby Prep Race
Early breakdowns of key Kentucky Derby prep races, contenders, pace scenarios, and betting angles.
🏆 2026 Kentucky Derby Points Leaders
(Road to the Roses Standings)
Below are the current leaders on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard as horses compete for a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May at Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
1. Paladin — 60 Points
Took control of the leaderboard with a major prep victory and currently sits comfortably inside the qualifying range.
2. Chip Honcho — 39 Points
Consistent performer across multiple prep starts, continuing to accumulate points.
3. Golden Tempo — 35 Points
Strong early campaign with competitive graded stakes efforts.
4. Silent Tactic — 25 Points
Southwest Stakes winner with a closing style that fits projected Derby pace scenarios.
5. Renegade — 25 Points
Multiple in-the-money finishes in key preps have kept him firmly in contention.
6. Intrepido — 23 Points
Steady improvement with solid graded stakes placings.
7. Universe — 23 Points
Tactical runner who continues to add points in competitive fields.
8. Plutarch — 23 Points
Versatile colt with upside as distances increase.
9. Pavlovian — 20 Points
Prep winner who made a significant move onto the leaderboard.
10. Express Kid — 20 Points
Recent strong finish boosted his position into the top tier.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby will be run May 2nd at 6:57 PM ET at Churchill Downs over 1¼ miles (10 furlongs) on dirt for three-year-olds. As the first leg of the Triple Crown, it annually attracts the largest field in American racing and routinely produces some of the most volatile betting results of the year.
Post Position Trends (Since 1930)
The starting gate was introduced in 1930, making post statistics from that year forward historically consistent.
Most wins by post position (1930–2024):
Post 5 — 10 wins (most of any gate)
Post 8 — 9 wins
Post 10 — 9 wins
Post 1 — 8 wins
Notable anomaly:
Post 17 has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner.
While post position trends are frequently cited in handicapping discussions, they reflect historical frequency rather than predictive certainty.
Contender Watch List (Updated Throughout Prep Season)
The following horses are on the early radar for the 2026 Kentucky Derby. This list will be updated as prep races conclude and qualifying points are finalized.
Blackout Time
Trainer: Kenny Mcpeek
Running Style: (Presser)
Notable Prep Result: 2nd to Tedd Noffey in Claiborne Breeders Futurity
Strength: Pedigree + Proven Talent
Primary Concern: Injured since most recent start, but plans to race in the Rebel
Blackout Time has flashed significant upside despite navigating a minor injury setback earlier in his campaign. McPeek has publicly expressed strong confidence in the colt, notably comparing his talent favorably within his Derby barn — a meaningful endorsement considering his success with Mystik Dan.
Silent Tactic
Trainer: Mark Casse
Running Style: (Closer)
Notable Prep Result: 1st in Southwest Stakes
Strength: Strong late kick + early Derby Points
Primary Concern: Need to find more early speed to keep himself within range of top class horses turning for home.
Silent Tactic has progressed with each start and delivered one of the more visually impressive prep performances in the Southwest Stakes. His trip that day was demanding — positioned three-wide early and widest turning for home — yet he sustained a long, grinding rally to run down the leaders late.
Nearly
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Running Style: (Presser)
Notable Prep Result: 1st in Holy Bull Stakes
Strength: Most talent among crop so far
Primary Concern: Sustained speed at 1 - 1/4 miles
Nearly makes the watchlist thanks to a rare combination of consistency, progression, and professionalism, capped by his Grade Three Holy Bull Stakes victory. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Nearly has been developed patiently and methodically, which is a hallmark of Pletcher’s approach with high-ceiling horses.
Plutarch
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Running Style: (Midpack)
Notable Prep Result: 1st in Robert B. Lewis Stakes
Strength: Looks to improve as distances stretch out
Primary Concern: Needs to continue improvement with 6 races under his belt
Plutarch shows the kind of versatility Baffert values most. He can adapt to pace scenarios, surfaces, and race shapes. He has won from off the pace, he has won on the lead, and he has been effective on both turf and dirt. Pedigree only strengthens the case. Plutarch is by Into Mischief out of Stellar Wind, with influences from Curlin and Harlan’s Holiday.
Trackside Profits Official Selection
Our official Kentucky Derby selection, confidence level, and wagering structure will be released before post time once final post positions, weather conditions, and pace projections are confirmed.
Fastest Winning Times
The Kentucky Derby is contested at 1¼ miles.
The fastest winning times in history:
Secretariat — 1:59.40 (1973), still the race and track record
Monarchos — 1:59.97 (2001)
Only these two horses have completed the Derby in under two minutes.
Triple Crown Context
The Kentucky Derby is the first leg of the Triple Crown, followed by the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.
There have been 13 Triple Crown winners in history, most recently Justify.
The overwhelming majority of Derby winners do not go on to sweep the Triple Crown.
The 1¼-mile Derby distance is also significant because it is typically the longest race most three-year-olds have run at that stage of their careers, often exposing stamina limitations.
Historical Favorite Performance
Since 1908, 40 betting favorites have won the Kentucky Derby.
That represents approximately 34% of all runnings during the pari-mutuel era.
Recent winning favorites include:
Justify (2018)
American Pharoah (2015)
California Chrome (2014)
Historically, the favorite wins roughly one out of every three Derbies, a lower rate than many other Grade 1 stakes races.
Longshot & Upset Trends
The Kentucky Derby has produced several of the largest upsets in American racing history.
Notable longshot winners include:
Donerail — 91-1 (1913)
Rich Strike — 80-1 (2022)
Mine That Bird — 50-1 (2009)
Giacomo — 50-1 (2005)
Large fields, pace pressure, and traffic congestion have historically contributed to a higher frequency of double-digit-priced winners compared to many other major stakes races.
Who’s Peaking at the Right Time?
Not every Derby contender is trending upward. Our updated Kentucky Derby Power Rankings highlight the horses improving at the right moment — and those vulnerable at short odds.
