2026 Kentucky Derby Hub
Recap and History of the Biggest Race In The Nation.
Everything you need to follow the road to Churchill Downs — all in one place.
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2026 Kentucky Derby Archived Power Rankings
| Race | Total Fixed ($20/$10/$5 per race) | Per Combo Base ($20/$10/$5 each) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win | Exacta | Trifecta | Win | Exacta | Trifecta | |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | $164.80 | — | — | $164.80 | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | $78.00 | — | — | $78.00 | — | — |
| 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8 | $51.40 | $27.00 | — | $51.40 | $54.00 | — |
| 9 | $44.00 | — | — | $44.00 | — | — |
| 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | $59.40 | $137.00 | $147.00 | $59.40 | $274.00 | $1,315.00 |
| 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 13 | $56.20 | — | — | $56.20 | — | — |
| 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
2026 Kentucky Derby Finishing Order
(Road to the Roses Standings
click on the horses name in blue to see full analysis)
Below are the current leaders on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard as horses compete for a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May at Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
1. Golden Tempo
He Took another step forward when 3rd to Pavlovian & Emerging Market in the Louisiana Derby.
2. Renegade
Arkansas Derby winner with the fastest closing kick of all contenders.
3. Ocelli
Maiden who drew into the Derby after a few scratches.
4. Chief Wallabee
Versatile colt with a strong Florida Derby performance, running a solid 3rd to The Puma and Commandment.
5. Danon Bourbon (International)
Japan‑based, Kentucky‑bred Maxfield colt who cruised to victory in the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama, and remains unbeaten in three starts.
6. Incredibolt
Most recently won the Virginia Derby and is now a 2 time graded stakes winner.
7. Commandment
Florida Derby winner with elite connections and pedigree to handle the distance.
8. Wonder Dean (International)
Japan‑based colt trained by Daisuke Takayanagi who scored a decisive victory in the Grade 2 UAE Derby at Meydan
9. So Happy
Captured the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby with a decisive 2¾‑length victory, showcasing tactical speed and versatility
10. Emerging Market
Lightly raced up-n-comer won the Louisiana Derby most recently when sitting mid-pack and finishing strongly.
11. Further Ado
delivered a dominant 11‑length victory in the Bluegrass at Keeneland, establishing himself as one of the top contenders on the Derby trail.
12. Potente
Lightly raced up-n-comer won the San Felipe Stakes and ran second in the Santa Anita Derby.
13. Six Speed (International)
Not This Time colt who scored on the Euro/Mideast Road to the Kentucky Derby with a solid second in the UAE Derby (G2)
14. Robusta
ran a solid second in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, picking up valuable Derby points with a strong late run
15. Albus
Scored a dramatic victory in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
16. Intrepido
He ran 4th in the Santa Anita Derby most recently. Has proven grade 1 success, winning the American Pharoah Stakes.
17. Litmus Test
tactical presser with declining form since his Los Alamitos Futurity win.
18. Pavlovian
He ran 2nd in the Louisiana Derby, setting fast fractions and fighting gamely in the stretch.
5. Full Effort – SCRATCHED
Jeff Ruby stakes winner with a closing style and improving form.
6. The Puma – SCRATCHED
Beat talent rivals in the Tampa Bay Derby, and took another step forward running 2nd in the Florida Derby.
Post Position Trends
(Since 1930)
The starting gate was introduced in 1930, making post statistics from that year forward historically consistent.
Most wins by post position (1930–2024):
Post 5 — 10 wins (most of any gate)
Post 8 — 9 wins
Post 10 — 9 wins
Post 1 — 8 wins
Notable anomaly:
Post 17 has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner.
While post position trends are frequently cited in handicapping discussions, they reflect historical frequency rather than predictive certainty.
Fastest Winning Times
The Kentucky Derby is contested at 1¼ miles.
The fastest winning times in history:
Secretariat — 1:59.40 (1973), still the race and track record
Monarchos — 1:59.97 (2001)
Only these two horses have completed the Derby in under two minutes.
Triple Crown Context
The Kentucky Derby is the first leg of the Triple Crown, followed by the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.
There have been 13 Triple Crown winners in history, most recently Justify.
The overwhelming majority of Derby winners do not go on to sweep the Triple Crown.
The 1¼-mile Derby distance is also significant because it is typically the longest race most three-year-olds have run at that stage of their careers, often exposing stamina limitations.
Contender Watch List
(Updated Throughout Prep Season)
The following horses are highlighted contenders on the early radar for the 2026 Kentucky Derby. This list will be updated as prep races conclude and plans are finalized.
Renegade
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Running Style: Closer
Notable Prep Result: Arkansas Derby Victory (Grade 1)
Strength: Powerful late kick and top-tier Derby points position
Renegade is one of the leading 3‑year‑old Thoroughbred contenders on the Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby, currently sitting near the top of the leaderboard with 125 Derby qualifying points. He made his mark with a dominant performance in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park, earning 100 points and vaulting himself into serious Derby consideration.
Commandment
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Running Style: Midpack
Notable Prep Result: Florida Derby Victory (Grade 1)
Strength: 3-for-3 this year with fastest speed figures.
Commandment asserted himself as a top contender on the 2026 Kentucky Derby trail with a commanding Grade 1 Florida Derby victory. Breaking from mid-pack, he sat comfortably behind the leaders, conserving energy before unleashing a decisive late surge to overtake the front-runners who set a slower early pace.
This performance highlighted his tactical versatility and ability to finish strongly against the best 3‑year-olds in the division, solidifying his status as a horse with a game-changing late punch.
Emerging Market
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Running Style: Stalker / Closer
Notable Prep Result: Louisiana Derby Victory (Grade 2)
Strength: Professional demeanor, classic‑distance potential
Emerging Market has quickly become a top 2026 Kentucky Derby contender with a perfect 2‑for‑2 record. He broke his Maiden in his first start and followed that with a Grade 2 Louisiana Derby victory, closing from off the pace to out-duel Pavlovian and earn 100 Derby points.
What stands out is his maturity and professionalism in just two starts. Combining stamina, tactical speed, and a strong late kick, he’s a colt to watch at Churchill Downs and has vaulted into the upper tier of 3‑year-olds nationally.
Longshot & Upset Trends
The Kentucky Derby has produced several of the largest upsets in American racing history.
Notable longshot winners include:
Donerail — 91-1 (1913)
Rich Strike — 80-1 (2022)
Mine That Bird — 50-1 (2009)
Giacomo — 50-1 (2005)
Large fields, pace pressure, and traffic congestion have historically contributed to a higher frequency of double-digit-priced winners compared to many other major stakes races.
Historical Favorite Performance
Since 1908, 40 betting favorites have won the Kentucky Derby.
That represents approximately 34% of all runnings during the pari-mutuel era.
Recent winning favorites include:
Justify (2018)
American Pharoah (2015)
California Chrome (2014)
Historically, the favorite wins roughly one out of every three Derbies, a lower rate than many other Grade 1 stakes races.
Kentucky Derby Power Rankings
The road to Louisville changes weekly.
→ View the Latest Kentucky Derby Power Rankings
Updated contender tiers, risers & fallers, pace projections, and stamina outlooks — built for serious Derby prep analysis.
Stay ahead of public momentum.