#17 Litmus Test

Feb 23

Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Last Race: Arkansas Derby (G1) – 7th
Running Style: Presser

Litmus Test, a son of Nyquist, flashed serious early talent when he captured the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), stamping himself as a legitimate Derby prospect with graded stakes-winning ability at two. That performance showcased his ability to sit forwardly placed and finish with intent when things went right.

Since then, however, his form has taken a noticeable step backward. He failed to replicate that same level in both the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby, where he was unable to sustain his earlier momentum and finished well below expectations. The regression has raised questions about whether his Futurity win represents his true ceiling or a peak effort.

Trainer Bob Baffert has kept him on the Derby trail, but notably, in public comments regarding his contenders, Litmus Test and stablemate Potente have not been highlighted with the same confidence as his more established top-tier prospects. That lack of endorsement has only reinforced the perception that Litmus Test is more of a depth piece than a primary win threat at this stage.

Still, the raw talent is obvious. If he can rebound to his juvenile form, he is the type who could become dangerous in a fast-paced Derby scenario.

Why He’s Ranked #17

G2 winner at two (Los Alamitos Futurity)
Showed early tactical speed and class
Has faced strong graded stakes competition on the Derby trail
Trainer connection keeps him on the path despite regression concerns
Upside remains if he rediscovers juvenile form

Pedigree Analysis

Sire: Nyquist
Dam: Study Hard
Grandsire: Uncle Mo
Damsire: Malibu Moon

Litmus Test carries a strong classic-leaning American pedigree led by Nyquist, a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and Kentucky Derby champion known for tactical speed and professional racecraft. On the dam side, Study Hard brings the influence of Uncle Mo, one of the most potent modern sires for precocity and class.

The deeper pedigree adds even more stamina and foundation, with influences from Malibu Moon, A.P. Indy, Seattle Slew, and Mr. Prospector appearing through the extended female family. That blend gives Litmus Test enough genetic grounding to handle classic distances, even if his current form has not yet matched the pedigree projection.

In short, the bloodlines say “Derby capable,” but the recent form says he still needs to prove it on the track.