2026 Santa Anita Derby Preview, & Picks | Can Potente Stay Undefeated?
The 2026 Santa Anita Derby (G1) is one of the final and most critical stepping stones on the road to the Kentucky Derby — and this year’s edition presents a fascinating handicapping challenge.
On the surface, this field may not scream “superstars,” but a deeper dive reveals a competitive group filled with lightly raced colts, upward-moving form cycles, and a pace scenario that could ultimately decide the outcome.
2026 Santa Anita Derby Field Breakdown
Cherokee Nation
Trained by Bob Baffert, Cherokee Nation enters this race as one of the more intriguing — and polarizing — runners in the field.
His early form leaves a lot to be desired. He finished 5th in both the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Robert B. Lewis Stakes, beaten decisively each time — and notably, he was still a maiden during those efforts.
Then came a breakout.
Last time out, he exploded against maiden company — winning by 10 lengths over a mile while posting a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. That kind of number immediately puts him in the conversation.
However, there are signals worth paying attention to:
Emisael Jaramillo, who rode him to that dominant win, jumps ship
Juan Hernandez, who had prior experience aboard, opts for another Baffert runner
That said, if his last race represents genuine progression rather than a one-off, Cherokee Nation has the raw ability to contend at a high level here.
Potente — The One to Beat
Among the Baffert runners, Potente stands out as the most reliable and likely favorite.
He’s coming off a strong victory in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), where he got the better of Robusta — and just as importantly, Juan Hernandez sticks with him despite having multiple options in this race. That’s often a meaningful signal of confidence.
Potente checks several key boxes:
Proven at the graded stakes level
Improving with distance
Tactical versatility (can stalk or sit close)
His progression last time out suggests that added ground will only benefit him further — and with many of these lightly raced colts, this is the time of year where major forward moves happen.
Another stat that jumps off the page: the Baffert/Hernandez combination has been operating at an elite win rate since 2025 — a level of consistency that’s difficult to ignore.
All signs point to Potente being a major player.
Vitruvian Man
Trained by Doug O’Neill, Vitruvian Man faces a difficult assignment.
He hasn’t raced since December, meaning this will be his three-year-old debut — and it comes straight into Grade 1 company. That’s a significant jump.
While reports suggest he’s been training forwardly, morning drills don’t always translate when the gates open.
There are also concerns about his pace profile. He’s consistently posted slower early fractions, and in a race that already lacks true speed, that could leave him with too much to do late.
To factor here, he likely needs:
A major step forward in form
A pace scenario that collapses (which seems unlikely)
Robusta
Also from the Doug O’Neill barn, Robusta appears to be the more dangerous of the two stablemates.
He’s coming off a narrow defeat in the San Felipe, finishing just a head behind Potente. Interestingly, his Timeform figure actually came back stronger, suggesting his effort may have been just as good — if not slightly better — when accounting for race dynamics.
The concern?
He had every chance in the stretch and couldn’t quite seal the deal.
Now stretching out further, the question becomes whether he’ll sustain his finish — or once again leave himself vulnerable late.
Still, there’s plenty to like:
Competitive with the top choice on figures
Proven against this level
Retains Jaramillo, who chose him over Cherokee Nation
At the right price, Robusta is absolutely a win contender.
So Happy
So Happy, trained by Mark Glatt, brings a completely different dynamic to this race — early speed.
He finished third in the San Felipe in his first attempt around two turns, and prior to that, he showed serious ability sprinting, including a 96 Beyer Speed Figure at seven furlongs.
Now stretching out again, distance remains the key question. Being by Runhappy, stamina isn’t guaranteed — but second-time routing is often where improvement shows up.
More importantly, he may control the race early.
With Mike Smith in the irons, expect aggressive tactics from the gate. If he clears and settles comfortably, he could become very dangerous on the front end.
Start the Ride
Start the Ride brings mixed form into this spot.
He was impressive winning the Cal Cup Derby two starts back, but followed that effort with a disappointing 10th-place finish in the San Felipe.
There is a potential angle here:
Third start off the layoff (often a peak effort point)
Physically, he’s shown signs of being in good condition — but ultimately, he’ll need to translate that into a significantly improved performance on the track.
Based on recent form, he’s a longshot that needs a major turnaround.
Intrepido
Drawing the outside is Intrepido, a colt with legitimate back class.
He finished second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes behind Plutarch — a horse who was considered a serious Derby prospect before injury.
Even more notable, Intrepido is a Grade 1 winner, having captured the American Pharoah Stakes at two.
So the talent is clearly there.
The main concern is distance. Nine furlongs may be stretching his optimal range, and that introduces some uncertainty late.
Still, second off the layoff with that level of class, he’s capable of stepping forward.
Pace Analysis: Who Controls the Race?
This is where the Santa Anita Derby becomes especially interesting.
There is no clear “need-the-lead” type in this field — a rarity in races like this.
Potente has shown the ability to run fast early fractions but doesn’t need the lead
So Happy appears to be the most natural front-runner
Several others prefer stalking or mid-pack positions
The likely scenario:
So Happy goes to the front under Mike Smith
Potente and Robusta sit just behind in ideal stalking spots
Intrepido and Cherokee Nation track just behind that group
Deep closers (Start the Ride, Vitruvian Man) may struggle if fractions are moderate
If the pace comes up soft — which seems likely — it will heavily favor horses positioned near the lead.
Santa Anita Derby 2026 Picks
🥇 1st — Potente
He brings the most complete profile into this race: proven class, upward trajectory, and a pace setup that should give him a perfect trip. With added distance playing to his strengths, he looks primed for another step forward.
🥈 2nd — Cherokee Nation
That last-out performance was too strong to ignore. If he builds on it, he has the raw ability to challenge — and the distance should suit his pedigree.
🥉 3rd — Robusta
Right there with Potente last time, and a repeat effort puts him firmly in the mix. Slight concern about finishing power at this distance keeps him just below the top two.
Horses on the edge
So Happy — Dangerous if left alone on the lead
Intrepido — Classy runner with upside, but distance is the question
Final Thoughts & Betting Strategy
Win: Potente
Exacta: Potente over Cherokee Nation
This year’s Santa Anita Derby may not feature a standout superstar, but it offers something just as valuable for bettors — uncertainty paired with upside.
Lightly raced horses, evolving form, and a pace scenario lacking clarity create opportunities for those willing to take a strong stance.
If the race unfolds as expected, tactical speed and positioning should prove decisive — giving an edge to the frontrunners.
Stay up to date on the 2026 Kentucky Derby
→ Kentucky Derby Hub – Full prep race previews, news, and expert Kentucky Derby analysis.
→ Kentucky Derby Power Rankings– Weekly leaderboard of top contenders, risers and fallers.
