5 Under-the-Radar Rising Stars on the Kentucky Derby Trail 🏇
Every Kentucky Derby season, at least one lightly raced colt goes from “who?” to serious contender in a matter of weeks.
Before the major prep races heat up, here are five developing 3-year-olds who have only run once — but flashed the kind of talent that can snowball quickly on the road to the Kentucky Derby.
These aren’t finished products. They’re progression candidates.
🐎 Emerging Market
By Candy Ride | Trained by Chad Brown
Emerging Market made an immediate impression at Tampa Bay Downs, winning his debut going a mile and 40 yards with a 96 Beyer Speed Figure — a number many experienced stakes horses would be proud of.
He’s out of an Empire Maker mare, suggesting stamina won’t be an issue as distances stretch out. Purchased for $185,000 at Keeneland, and after his debut, the profile checks serious boxes.
Why he’s intriguing:
Professional, route-ready, and already fast.
What he must prove:
Can he reproduce that performance under real pressure in a stakes environment going longer?
🐎 Thunderously
By Gun Runner | Trained by William I. Mott
Thunderously debuted at Gulfstream Park and handled himself like a seasoned runner. He tracked the pace, tipped outside, and pulled away comfortably late.
The 87 Beyer doesn’t jump off the page, but Gun Runner offspring often improve significantly with distance and experience. The foundation is there.
Why he’s intriguing:
Professional debut and bred to stretch out.
What he must prove:
Needs a meaningful jump forward on the speed figure scale to enter serious prep discussions.
🐎 Englishman
By Maxfield | Trained by Cherie DeVaux
Englishman may have shown the most raw ability of this group so far.
He earned a 97 Beyer in a 7-furlong maiden at Churchill Downs, breaking sharply, controlling the race, and drawing off decisively. That’s legitimate talent.
The big question is how that speed translates to two turns. The Maxfield pedigree suggests he should handle more ground, but it’s still early in evaluating his full influence.
Why he’s intriguing:
Fast, confident, and visually impressive.
What he must prove:
Can he relax and carry that speed around two turns?
🐎 Iron Honor
By Nyquist | Trained by Chad Brown
Iron Honor won his debut at Aqueduct with grit. He battled through the stretch and refused to back down — earning a 95 Beyer in the process.
He didn’t look polished. He looked competitive. That can matter when races get tougher.
Why he’s intriguing:
Already battle-tested and Nyquist colts tend to get better with starts.
What he must prove:
Can he develop to relax a bit more? The last few Derbies have been run with super fast fractions early.
🐎 Chief Wallabee
By Constitution | Trained by William I. Mott
Chief Wallabee debuted at Gulfstream and won going away, earning an 88 Beyer. The number was solid — but the gallop-out was even better, suggesting more in the tank.
Constitution progeny frequently improve at three, especially as distances increase.
Why he’s intriguing:
Strong finish and room to improve.
What he must prove:
Needs an 8–10 point jump on figures next out to enter serious Derby prep territory.
Who Could Break Out First?
If one of these names jumps forward quickly, Englishman looks the most naturally fast right now.
If you’re thinking long-term stamina and classic distance upside, Emerging Market may be the most complete Derby profile at this stage.
But development isn’t linear — and that’s what makes this time of year fascinating.
The Bigger Picture
Derby contenders are almost never obvious in January or February. Many of them are lightly raced, still learning, and improving rapidly.
The key isn’t dominance — it’s progression.
I’ll be tracking these developing 3-year-olds as they step into tougher company on the road to the Kentucky Derby.
As the Derby trail unfolds, pedigree matters — but so does performance.
See who sits in our latest Kentucky Derby Power Rankings
