Kentucky Derby Top 10 Contenders
The Kentucky Derby picture is still very much in its early stages, but a handful of three-year-olds have already shown enough ability, progression, and upside to separate themselves from the pack. Below is an early ranking of the top 10 Kentucky Derby contenders, based on past performance data, speed figures, race replays, and developmental trends.
This list will evolve as prep races are run, but these are the horses worth tracking right now.
🥇 #1 Nearly
Nearly sits atop the early rankings thanks to a strong combination of talent, consistency, and forward progression, leading to a G3 Holy Bull Stakes Win. He’s shown the ability to handle pace, finish his races, and continue improving with added distance. While still early, his overall profile suggests a colt capable of handling the demands of the Derby trail.
Why he’s here: Steady improvement, strong connections, and long-term upside.
🥈 #2 Plutarch
Plutarch has already proven himself against quality competition, most recently winning the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes. He’s shown true versatility, winning from off the pace and on the lead, and has been effective on both turf and dirt — a strong indicator he can handle the demanding and unpredictable nature of the Derby trail. Pedigree is another major positive. Plutarch is by Into Mischief and out of Stellar Wind, giving him a powerful blend of speed and stamina. Influences from Curlin and Harlan’s Holiday further reinforce the belief that added distance should be a strength rather than a limitation as the prep season progresses.
Why he’s here: Proven class, versatility and pedigree.
🥉 #3 Silent Tactic
Silent Tactic is a colt who continues to improve with each start. His Southwest Stakes victory was particularly impressive — he was three-wide and unhurried through the opening six furlongs, then swung widest around the far turn and sustained a powerful drive to collar the leaders at the sixteenth pole. His strong finishing ability highlights his upside as he gains experience, and his most recent performance confirmed his talent at this level.
Why he’s here: Late kick, improving pattern, and developmental appeal.
#4 Litmus Test
Litmus Test has already shown enough talent to warrant serious attention. He has handled competitive fields well and now needs to sustain his form as distances increase. He captured the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity before being scratched from the Southwest Stakes, with trainer Bob Baffert noting the race was never intended for him and that the colt is being targeted for the San Felipe Stakes.
Why he’s here: Proven talent and steady early-season foundation.
#5 Blackout Time
Blackout Time brings an intriguing combination of raw talent, potential, and pedigree. Despite a minor injury setback, his flashes of ability suggest a colt capable of taking a significant step forward with the right setup and continued development. Trainer Kenny McPeek has expressed that he is as high on Blackout Time as any horse he has had on the Derby trail — a very high compliment when recalling the success of Mystic Dan. Most recently, Blackout Time finished a close second by less than two lengths to Tedd Noffey, the early heavy Derby favorite before an injury sidelined him.
Why he’s here: Major upside and an experienced trainer genuinely excited for this colt.
#6 Paladin
Paladin is a lightly raced but highly promising colt with just three career starts. He most recently captured the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes, defeating Chip Honcho and Golden Tempo. Paladin has already proven himself at a mile and an eighth, farther than almost anyone else in the early Top 10. He boasts a legitimate pedigree, being out of Gun Runner, and is being carefully developed with the Derby trail in mind. While lightly raced, his early form, distance experience, and proper management suggest significant upside as he continues to progress.
Why he’s here: Early ability and developmental potential.
#7 Renegade
Renegade is a colt with clear talent, most recently capturing the Sam F. Davis Stakes. When conditions suit him, he demonstrates the ability that proves he belongs at this level. Continued development and experience will be key, but with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons and Todd Pletcher in the barn, confidence is high that he will continue to progress.
Why he’s here: Raw ability and room to improve with strong connections.
#8 Talk To Me Jimmy
Talk To Me Jimmy has demonstrated fight and determination, keeping him on the early Derby radar. While he may not yet boast the biggest speed figures, his Withers Stakes victory was visually impressive, and he has shown improvement in each of his three career starts.
Why he’s here: Incremental improvement, and early derby points.
#9 Napoleon Solo
Napoleon Solo is an intriguing long-term prospect who has not yet raced at age three. He ended his two-year-old season with a dominant Champagne Stakes victory, showcasing his talent early. With continued seasoning and development, he is expected to take meaningful steps forward as he progresses toward the Derby trail.
Why he’s here: Real upside and potential value appeal.
#10 Golden Tempo
Golden Tempo is a very lightly raced colt, with just three career starts culminating in a 3rd place in the Risen Star. He already shows professional composure, sitting off the pace and producing strong late runs. But Golden Tempo needs to show he can stay more connected early, as proven grade 1 types won’t come back to him.
Why he’s here: Honest form, stamina indicators, and dependable efforts.
Honorable Mentions
Brant – Has shown plenty of early talent, but distance may be a question, as his best work so far has come sprinting.
Further Ado – Won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last out, but took a slight step backward in the process, raising the question of whether he may have already peaked.
Intrepido – Talented but still inconsistent; most recently finished second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, showing a quicker early foot that hints at more potential.
Final Thoughts
This early ranking is about identifying who to track, not predicting a finished Derby order. As prep races unfold and form sharpens, new names will emerge and others will fade.
