Kentucky Derby
Last Updated: February 13th
The 2026 Kentucky Derby will be run May 2nd at 6:57 PM ET at Churchill Downs over 1¼ miles (10 furlongs) on dirt for three-year-olds. As the first leg of the Triple Crown, it annually attracts the largest field in American racing and routinely produces some of the most volatile betting results of the year.
Kentucky Derby Power Rankings
See how the top contenders stack up heading into Churchill Downs. Our updated Power Rankings break down current form, prep strength, and distance profile.
→ View Kentucky Derby Power Rankings
Post Position Trends (Since 1930)
The starting gate was introduced in 1930, making post statistics from that year forward historically consistent.
Most wins by post position (1930–2024):
Post 5 — 10 wins (most of any gate)
Post 8 — 9 wins
Post 10 — 9 wins
Post 1 — 8 wins
Notable anomaly:
Post 17 has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner.
While post position trends are frequently cited in handicapping discussions, they reflect historical frequency rather than predictive certainty.
Fastest Winning Times
The Kentucky Derby is contested at 1¼ miles.
The fastest winning times in history:
Secretariat — 1:59.40 (1973), still the race and track record
Monarchos — 1:59.97 (2001)
Only these two horses have completed the Derby in under two minutes.
Triple Crown Context
The Kentucky Derby is the first leg of the Triple Crown, followed by the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.
There have been 13 Triple Crown winners in history, most recently Justify.
The overwhelming majority of Derby winners do not go on to sweep the Triple Crown.
The 1¼-mile Derby distance is also significant because it is typically the longest race most three-year-olds have run at that stage of their careers, often exposing stamina limitations.
Historical Favorite Performance
Since 1908, 40 betting favorites have won the Kentucky Derby.
That represents approximately 34% of all runnings during the pari-mutuel era.
Recent winning favorites include:
Justify (2018)
American Pharoah (2015)
California Chrome (2014)
Historically, the favorite wins roughly one out of every three Derbies, a lower rate than many other Grade 1 stakes races.
Longshot & Upset Trends
The Kentucky Derby has produced several of the largest upsets in American racing history.
Notable longshot winners include:
Donerail — 91-1 (1913)
Rich Strike — 80-1 (2022)
Mine That Bird — 50-1 (2009)
Giacomo — 50-1 (2005)
Large fields, pace pressure, and traffic congestion have historically contributed to a higher frequency of double-digit-priced winners compared to many other major stakes races.
Contender Watch List (Updated Throughout Prep Season)
The following horses are on the early radar for the 2026 Kentucky Derby. This list will be updated as prep races conclude and qualifying points are finalized.
Blackout Time
Trainer: Kenny Mcpeek
Running Style: (Presser)
Notable Prep Result: 2nd to Tedd Noffey in Claiborne Breeders Futurity
Strength: Pedigree + Proven Talent
Primary Concern: Injured since most recent start, but plans to race in the Rebel
Blackout Time has flashed significant upside despite navigating a minor injury setback earlier in his campaign. McPeek has publicly expressed strong confidence in the colt, notably comparing his talent favorably within his Derby barn — a meaningful endorsement considering his success with Mystik Dan. His recent runner-up effort behind Tedd Noffey demonstrated both competitiveness and tactical speed, traits that are historically valuable in the Kentucky Derby’s projected pace environment. If he continues progressing physically, Blackout Time projects as a colt capable of handling the 1¼-mile distance at Churchill Downs, with legitimate upside entering race week.
Silent Tactic
Trainer: Mark Casse
Running Style: (Closer)
Notable Prep Result: 1st in Southwest Stakes
Strength: Strong late kick + early Derby Points
Primary Concern: Need to find more early speed to keep himself within range of top class horses turning for home.
Silent Tactic has progressed with each start and delivered one of the more visually impressive prep performances in the Southwest Stakes. His trip that day was demanding — positioned three-wide early and widest turning for home — yet he sustained a long, grinding rally to run down the leaders late. That type of stamina-based finish often translates well as distances stretch beyond nine furlongs and toward the Kentucky Derby’s 1¼ miles at Churchill Downs. If the projected Derby pace develops honestly, his running style could position him to capitalize in the final quarter-mile.
Nearly
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Running Style: (Presser)
Notable Prep Result: 1st in Holy Bull Stakes
Strength: Most talent among crop so far
Primary Concern: Sustained speed at 1 - 1/4 miles
Nearly sits atop the early rankings thanks to a rare combination of consistency, progression, and professionalism, capped by his Grade Three Holy Bull Stakes victory. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Nearly has been developed patiently and methodically, which is a hallmark of Pletcher’s approach with high-ceiling horses. What stands out most is Nearly’s ability to handle pace and still finish, which is often the final piece that separates true Derby contenders from talented stakes horses. He does not need the lead, he does not panic when asked, and he continues running through the wire. Those traits only become more valuable as prep races
Plutarch
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Running Style: (Midpack)
Notable Prep Result: 1st in Robert B. Lewis Stakes
Strength: Looks to improve as distances stretch out
Primary Concern: Needs to continue improvement with 6 races under his belt
Plutarch shows the kind of versatility Baffert values most. He can adapt to pace scenarios, surfaces, and race shapes. He has won from off the pace, he has won on the lead, and he has been effective on both turf and dirt. Pedigree only strengthens the case. Plutarch is by Into Mischief out of Stellar Wind, with influences from Curlin and Harlan’s Holiday. That gives him a legitimate blend of speed and stamina, and added distance should help him, not hurt him. Bob Baffert’s Derby success has shown that his horses tend to peak at the right time, and Plutarch’s profile fits that mold extremely well. That is why he is here. Proven class, versatility, elite pedigree, and a top-tier barn.
Trackside Profits Official Selection
Our official Kentucky Derby selection, confidence level, and wagering structure will be released 48 hours before post time once final post positions, weather conditions, and pace projections are confirmed.
