#14 Pavlovian | 70 pts

Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Edwin Maldonado
Last Race: Louisiana Derby – 2nd
Running Style: Frontrunner

Pavlovian is a speed-oriented colt who excels on the front end, making him a standout early leader on the Kentucky Derby trail. He captured the Sunland Derby two back and most recently ran a very impressive second in the Louisiana Derby, dueling Emerging Market in the stretch after setting blistering fractions. His ability to maintain high speed over longer distances was on full display, running sub-23 and 47-second fractions before just missing by a neck at 1 3/16 miles, the longest prep distance on the trail.

As a frontrunner, Pavlovian dictates pace and challenges competitors to keep up, showing both courage and stamina. His Louisiana Derby performance highlighted his toughness and ability to maintain a relentless tempo deep into route distances. While he may face challenges if pressured early by other speed horses, his natural pace-setting ability and class give him a strong chance to influence races from the front.

Why He’s Ranked #14

• Sunland Derby winner
• Louisiana Derby runner-up with fast fractions
• Prototypical frontrunner with stamina and courage
• Experienced at stretching out to longer prep distances

Pedigree Analysis

Sire: Pavel
Dam: Mandy’s Grace
Grandsire: Creative Cause
Granddam: Mons Venus
Other notable ancestors: Bellamy Road, Giant’s Causeway, Maria’s Mon, Storm Cat, Wavering Monarch, Chief’s Crown, Valid Appeal

Pavlovian’s pedigree blends speed and route stamina, with Creative Cause and Giant’s Causeway contributing class and staying power, while Bellamy Road and Storm Cat bring tactical speed and early pace ability. Maria’s Mon and Chief’s Crown add proven toughness and durability, making him capable of handling challenging race scenarios.

This combination of pedigree, early speed, and proven performance over longer distances positions Pavlovian as a colt who can control races from the front and remain a factor deep into Derby-length contests.