#1 Forever YoungWhy the Defending Champion Still Sits on Top
He's Already Proven He Can Win This Race
Forever Young stays at the top of my Breeders' Cup Classic Power Rankings, and there are a few reasons why. First, he has already proven that he can win this race.
He captured last year's Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar with a career-best 111 Beyer Speed Figure, beating Sierra Leone by a nose after a wide rally through the stretch. That was not a fluky win — it was a Grade 1 performance against one of the strongest fields in the division.
A Resume That's Difficult to Match
He comes into this year's Classic with a resume few in the field can touch. Here's how his last four major starts line up:
- 2025 · Del Mar Breeders' Cup Classic WON Career-best 111 Beyer. Beat Sierra Leone by a nose after a wide rally.
- February · Saudi Arabia $20 Million Saudi Cup WON Beat elite international competition in the world's richest race.
- March · Dubai Dubai World Cup 2ND Runner-up to Magnitude, who came back to win the Stephen Foster with a 114 Beyer.
- Most recent · Belmont Park Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup WON Won by 3¼ lengths at 1¼ miles, off nearly six months away. 105 Beyer.
That Dubai result looks especially interesting now. Magnitude's 114 Beyer in the Stephen Foster suggests the horse who beat Forever Young in March is a genuinely elite one, which makes that runner-up finish look a lot better when evaluating Forever Young's current form.
The 105 Beyer: Red Flag or Starting Point?
Most recently, Forever Young returned from nearly a six-month layoff and won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup by 3¼ lengths at the new Belmont Park. He earned a 105 Beyer, six points below the figure he earned winning last year's Classic.
The Numbers Behind the Question
Beyer Speed Figures referenced in this breakdown
Bars start at a baseline of 90 to make the gap between figures easier to see.
On the surface, that number isn't as fast as some of the other leading Classic contenders have run this year. But I don't think you can look at the 105 in isolation. Consider the context:
- It was his first start in roughly six months.
- It came over a brand-new Belmont dirt surface.
- His own trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, said afterward he was only "50-percent happy" with the performance.
He still won a Grade 1 at 1¼ miles by more than three lengths, and his own trainer was only "50-percent happy."
That's actually one of the more interesting handicapping angles with Forever Young. His latest race doesn't need to be viewed as his peak. It was his return to racing. The bigger question is how much improvement he can make with that race under him and another six weeks to prepare for Keeneland.
A horse that wins a Grade 1 off a long layoff, with his own connections saying he wasn't at his best, is often a horse moving forward, not backward. The second start back is where you'd expect to see the sharper version.
Versatility: He Doesn't Need a Perfect Trip
The other thing I continue to like is his versatility. Forever Young has won major races at 1⅛ miles and 1¼ miles, both in the U.S. and internationally, and he's shown that he doesn't need everything to go perfectly to put himself in position.
His 2025 Classic victory was especially impressive because he had to negotiate the turns better than he did in his previous American appearances. Jockey Ryusei Sakai said the team had specifically worked on that aspect of his racing.
The One Legitimate Question
Can he produce a figure closer to that 111 Beyer from last year's Classic? A 105 is good enough to win plenty of Grade 1 races, but the Classic is likely to require more. Horses like Magnitude, Sovereignty and Knightsbridge have already posted very fast figures this year.
The good news for Forever Young is that we have already seen him produce that higher level on the biggest stage.
✔ The Case For
- Defending Breeders' Cup Classic champion
- Already beaten elite international competition
- Grade 1 win at the Classic distance this year
- Latest race likely wasn't his ceiling
- Proven he can handle American turns
✖ The Concern
- 105 Beyer trails the top figures in the division
- Magnitude, Sovereignty and Knightsbridge have run faster this year
- The Classic will likely require a bigger number
Why He Remains My #1
He's the defending champion, he's already beaten elite international competition, he has another Grade 1 win at the Classic distance this year, and his most recent race may have left him with more room to improve rather than showing us his ceiling.
The 105 Beyer is the number I want to watch going forward, but I'm not ready to downgrade the defending champion because of a 105 coming off a six-month layoff.
Watch: Forever Young's 2025 Breeders' Cup Classic Win
Want to watch the race again? Here's the wide rally and the nose finish over Sierra Leone that made him a Breeders' Cup champion.
Watch how he handles the turns, the part of his game Sakai said the team specifically worked on.
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Who is #1 in the Breeders' Cup Classic Power Rankings?
Forever Young, the defending Breeders' Cup Classic champion, who most recently won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup by 3¼ lengths.
What Beyer did Forever Young earn winning the 2025 Classic?
A career-best 111 Beyer Speed Figure, beating Sierra Leone by a nose at Del Mar.
Is the 105 Beyer in the Jockey Club Gold Cup a concern?
It's the number to watch, but context matters: it came off a roughly six-month layoff on a brand-new surface, and trainer Yoshito Yahagi said he was only "50-percent happy." It likely wasn't his ceiling.
Who are Forever Young's biggest threats?
Magnitude, Sovereignty and Knightsbridge have all posted very fast figures this year. Magnitude beat Forever Young in the Dubai World Cup and later won the Stephen Foster with a 114 Beyer.
