Hughes is unbeaten and the early favorite. But a colt in New York has run faster, and his owners skipped the Breeders' Cup on purpose. Here are the five 2-year-olds who matter most for next May, with the numbers behind each one.
Hughes could be Bob Baffert's best 2-year-old in years. He's 5 for 5 with three Grade 1 wins, and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile was the first time anyone made him fight.
But there's a colt in New York who may be every bit as good. He won a Grade 1 by 6½ lengths as soon as his jockey asked, and he's already run a faster Beyer than Hughes ever has. Then his owners passed on the Breeders' Cup, on purpose.
Below are the five juveniles I think matter most for the 2027 Kentucky Derby. For each one you get the record, the key numbers and the question he still has to answer. At the end, you'll see what the betting markets think, and which horse I think is the real threat to Hughes.
At a glanceThe Five, Side by Side
| Horse | Trainer | Record | Signature win | Futures* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hughes | Bob Baffert | 5-5 | BC Juvenile (G1) | 11-1 → 8-1 |
| U.S.S. Valor | Shug McGaughey | 3-2 | Champagne (G1) | 28-1 → 10-1 |
| American History | Todd Pletcher | 3-2 | Breeders' Futurity (G1) | 28-1 → 20-1 |
| The Good Life | Brad Cox | 2-2 | Hopeful (G1) | 25-1 → 28-1 |
| Inshallah | John Sadler | 1-1 | Del Mar maiden | 50-1 → 50-1 |
*Caesars Sportsbook 2027 Derby futures: opening price (Oct. 22) → price on Nov. 10, as reported by Horse Racing Nation.
1 · The favoriteHughes
Start with the horse everyone else is chasing. Hughes has won all five of his starts by a combined 26¾ lengths: his maiden by 6, the Grade 3 Best Pal by 7¾, the Del Mar Futurity by 4¾, the American Pharoah by 6, and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile by 2¼. He has 40 qualifying points, more than any other horse, and he opened as the 11-1 favorite when Caesars posted 2027 Derby futures on Oct. 22.
His pedigree answers the distance question better than most. His sire, Into Mischief, was North America's leading sire every year from 2019 through 2025. His dam, K P Dreamin, is by Union Rags, who won the 1½-mile Belmont Stakes. And the Juvenile told us something about his stamina: he sat close to a half-mile in :46.65, then still came home his final eighth in :12.42.
“This horse had never been in a battle, and he really battled.” — Bob Baffert, after the Juvenile
So why isn't he a lock? Two reasons. First, his best Beyer is a 100, from the American Pharoah. That's very good, but it isn't dominant, and the next horse on this list has already run faster. Second, history isn't on his side.
So who could be the first horse to really look him in the eye? The obvious answer is the colt who already tried.
2 · The one who's faced himAmerican History
American History is the only horse on this list who has actually run against Hughes, and he was the one gaining at the wire.
He's a Todd Pletcher colt by Constitution, owned by WinStar Farm, First Go Racing and CHC, and he sold for $825,000 as a yearling. He won his debut at Saratoga by 7¾ lengths, then won the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland in only his second start, running down Coach Pope by a length.
In the Juvenile, he rallied late under John Velazquez and finished 2nd, 2¼ lengths behind Hughes. Here's the detail that makes it better than it looks: according to the Equibase GPS chart, he covered 26 feet more than Hughes did. That's about two lengths of extra ground.
He's also bred for a mile and a quarter. His dam, Bloody Point, is a half-sister to Vekoma, a three-time Grade 1 winner, and Street Sense appears further back in the family. And Pletcher knows this road; he's won the Derby twice.
If Hughes and American History are the two names you already know, the next horse is the one the betting public may still be underrating.
3 · The colt from New YorkU.S.S. Valor
This is the colt I mentioned at the top. U.S.S. Valor is trained by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey, ridden by Manny Franco and bred and owned by Barry Irwin's Team Valor. His sire, War of Will, won the Preakness. And this team knows how to win the Derby: McGaughey won it with Orb, and Team Valor won it with Animal Kingdom.
He lost his debut at Saratoga after being carried inward at the start and finished 3rd, beaten three-quarters of a length. Next time out, he won his maiden by 13¼ lengths and earned a 105 Beyer. That's five points faster than anything Hughes has run.
Then came the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont. He broke a step slow and sat 5th, saving ground behind horses. Franco tipped him outside on the turn, and when he asked, the race was over. Valor took over near the eighth pole and won by 6½ lengths, running the mile in 1:34.84.
“He just exploded.” — Manny Franco, after the Champagne
And on the question everyone asks about a young horse, McGaughey kept it short: “Distance ain't a problem.”
So why isn't he a bigger name? Because his connections skipped the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, even though the Champagne gave him a free spot in it. That was a deliberate choice: they're managing him for one goal, and it's the first Saturday in May. The downside is that he's never faced Hughes, and that may be the most important matchup of the winter.
He's not the only Grade 1 winner who's been put away until next year, either.
4 · Pure speedThe Good Life
The Good Life won his debut at Saratoga by 3½ lengths, then took the Grade 1 Hopeful by four, leading from the rail the whole way at seven furlongs. Brad Cox didn't overthink it: “This horse has a lot of speed, natural speed.”
He also has one of the more fun ownership stories on the trail. He races for a WinStar partnership that includes Detroit Pistons guard Kevin Huerter, who was at Saratoga for both of his wins.
After the Hopeful, his connections decided he needed time: 30 days in the paddock and 30 days of light training, with no surgery. He'll be back as a 3-year-old. He opened at 25-1 in the Caesars futures and has drifted to 28-1.
5 · The wild cardInshallah
Inshallah may be the most intriguing horse on this list, and he's only run once. He's from the first crop of Flightline, he cost $2.1 million at a 2-year-olds in training sale, and he's trained by John Sadler, the same trainer who had Flightline. That alone makes him worth watching.
In his debut at Del Mar on Aug. 15, he went straight to the lead and won by 1½ lengths going 5½ furlongs. The 90 Beyer he earned was the best by any 2-year-old at Del Mar this summer, according to Daily Racing Form. Sadler wasn't shy about what comes next: “He's going to be great at a distance.”
Follow the moneyWhat the Betting Markets Say
Here's something that backs up my read on Valor. In Churchill Downs' first Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool, which closed before the Juvenile was run, bettors made U.S.S. Valor the top individual choice at 6-1, ahead of Hughes at 8-1. And at Caesars, Valor has gone from 28-1 to 10-1 in less than three weeks.
Odds as reported by Horse Racing Nation and the Churchill Downs pool results. Futures prices change daily.
One way to read that: the gap between Hughes and Valor on paper is smaller than the opening prices suggested, and the market has started to notice.
My takeThe Verdict: Who's the Biggest Threat to Hughes?
For me, it's U.S.S. Valor. He has the fastest Beyer on this list. He has a Hall of Fame trainer and an owner who have both won the Derby before. His sire won a Triple Crown race, his trainer says distance won't be a problem, and he's being managed for one goal. And when futures opened, he was more than twice Hughes' price.
Hughes is still the horse to beat. He's unbeaten, he's proven at two turns, and he has Baffert. But somebody has to be the first horse to look him in the eye in the stretch, and my bet is that it's U.S.S. Valor.
My early threat rankings
- 1U.S.S. Valor Fastest figure, Derby-winning connections, built for May.
- 2American History Already closed on Hughes, and the extra distance should help.
- 3The Good Life Real speed, but has to prove he can carry it two turns.
- 4Inshallah Huge upside; needs to get back to the races.
What would change my mind this winter
- U.S.S. Valor's first race around two turns. If he runs a big figure going a route, he's a serious Derby horse. If he doesn't, Hughes moves further ahead.
- Whether American History keeps improving with distance. A closer who's beaten 2¼ lengths at 2 can easily flip it at 3.
- How The Good Life handles two turns when he comes back. That one race will tell us most of what we need to know.
- When Inshallah returns, and whether that 90 Beyer was a sign of things to come.
WatchThe Full Breakdown
Who's your early Derby horse? Is anyone beating Hughes?
Quick answers2027 Kentucky Derby FAQ
Who is the favorite for the 2027 Kentucky Derby?
Hughes, the unbeaten Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner trained by Bob Baffert, was the 8-1 favorite in Caesars Sportsbook's 2027 Derby futures on Nov. 10, 2026. He also leads the Derby points standings with 40.
Who are the top contenders for the 2027 Kentucky Derby?
The early names to know are Hughes, U.S.S. Valor, American History, The Good Life and Inshallah.
Why did U.S.S. Valor skip the Breeders' Cup Juvenile?
His owner, Team Valor, chose to skip the Juvenile even though his Champagne win earned him a free spot, so he could focus on the 2027 Kentucky Derby.
How many Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners have won the Kentucky Derby?
Two: Street Sense and Nyquist.
Which 2027 Kentucky Derby contender has the fastest Beyer?
U.S.S. Valor, with a 105 Beyer in his seven-furlong maiden win at Saratoga on Sept. 5, 2026. Hughes' best is a 100, from the American Pharoah.
Get this kind of work on every race
From the Derby preps all the way to the first Saturday in May, members get:
- Full-card picks every day at every track we cover
- Four of my most selective plays every Friday
- Every Betting Blueprint included
- Every top pick tracked publicly, so you can check the record before you join
Race results, margins, times and Beyer Speed Figures from NYRA, Daily Racing Form, America's Best Racing, BloodHorse and Horse Racing Nation. Futures odds from Caesars Sportsbook and Churchill Downs as reported by Horse Racing Nation; odds change daily. There are no guaranteed winners. Wager responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
