Can Golden Tempo Stay Undefeated Against $1.9M G2 Winner Paladin in the Risen Star Stakes?

Fair Grounds – Race 12 – Saturday, Feb. 14 – 6:30 PM ET
Risen Star Stakes (G2)
1 1/8 Miles | 3-Year-Olds | $500,000 Purse

The Risen Star Stakes isn’t just another Grade 2 — it’s a Kentucky Derby prep that separates projection from foundation.

This year’s edition presents a clean, compelling contrast:

• Golden Tempo — 2-for-2, visually impressive, still climbing.

• Paladin — $1.9 million son of Gun Runner, already a Grade 2 winner.

Undefeated upside versus established class.

Let’s run through the field.

1. Universe (8-1)

Blinkers go on after a flat effort in the Smarty Jones. He previously competed well in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), but the recent 69 Beyer represents regression.

His numbers have hovered in the low 80s, and in a race where the top two have already run faster, he’ll need a significant forward move.

2. Golden Tempo (3-1)

Undefeated. Improving. Dangerous.

He captured the Lecomte (G3) with authority, closing strongly into solid fractions. His 110 Timeform Late Pace figure backs up the visual impression — he finishes.

More importantly, he has taken a step forward in each start.

That’s solid progression — but it’s not yet elite.

He’s bred to handle 1 1/8 miles (by Curlin), and his development pattern suggests another forward move is possible. If that happens, he absolutely can win this race.

But this is a different class test. He will likely have to pass them all again in the stretch — and this time, one of those horses owns faster, proven graded figures.

3. Carson Street (8-1)

Likely pace presence.

He posted fast Early figures in the Lecomte and projects forward again. The concern is finishing power — Golden Tempo ran him down last time going a sixteenth shorter.

If he clears and controls, he becomes interesting. If pressured, he becomes part of the setup.

4. Paladin (8-5)

The most accomplished horse in the field.

Two starts. First across the wire in both. Officially 1-for-2 after a stewards’ decision in his debut.

Last out, he delivered a decisive victory in the Remsen (G2), earning an 87 Beyer — faster than anything Golden Tempo has run to date.

That gap matters at nine furlongs.

His 108 Timeform Early figure tells you something critical: he doesn’t need the lead, but he won’t be far away. He can sit within one to two lengths of any pace scenario.

That tactical positioning neutralizes Golden Tempo’s late kick advantage.

Trained by Chad Brown — who wins at a 20% clip in graded stakes and excels with route dirt runners — Paladin has already proven he can handle adversity, stretch out, and finish at this level.

On paper and on figures, he is the most likely winner.

5. Chip Honcho (6-1)

Another forward type who pressed the pace in the Lecomte before flattening late. Blinkers come off in an attempt to help him relax.

His figures sit in the low 80 range — competitive but slightly below the top tier. He’s more likely to influence pace than the win photo unless he finds another forward step.

6. Colt Forty Seven (20-1)

Deep closer stepping into deeper company. His best figures sit in the mid-70s.

He would need both a pace collapse and a career-best effort to threaten.

Difficult win case.

7. Courting (6-1)

This is where the wagering value begins.

A $5 million Curlin colt for Todd Pletcher, Courting finished fourth in the Remsen behind Paladin after getting bumped early. He improved late and continues to train forwardly.

His Timeform profile suggests balance — not dependent on the lead, not purely one-dimensional.

His tactical positioning gives him first run at Golden Tempo turning for home — at a better price. That makes him the most logical beneficiary underneath if the top two separate from the rest.

8. Quality Mischief (10-1)

Closed mildly in the Lecomte. Brad Cox trains, which commands respect, but he lacks early pace and may be chasing from too far back.

Needs improvement.

Pace & Race Shape

Carson Street and Chip Honcho ensure an honest tempo.

Paladin projects to sit just off that speed — ideally in the second flight, within striking range.

Golden Tempo will likely settle and attempt one sustained run.

The dynamic is straightforward:

• Paladin’s tactical speed gives him first run.

• Golden Tempo’s weapon is late acceleration.

If the pace is moderate, Paladin controls the race.
If it’s faster than expected, Golden Tempo becomes more dangerous.

But in either scenario, Paladin’s positional advantage is significant.

Betting Strategy: Extracting Value

Both Golden Tempo and Paladin will take heavy action.

Golden Tempo draws undefeated money.
Paladin draws class money.

When two runners dominate the win pool, the sharper edge often shifts to vertical structure.

Rather than chasing 8-5 or 3-1 in the win pool, leverage probability.

Recommended Play:

Exacta — Paladin over Courting

Why?

• Paladin owns the fastest figures and the tactical advantage.

• Golden Tempo may be slightly overbet off the undefeated narrative and lacks early pace.

• Courting profiles as the most logical second, coming off a freshening and carrying a prominent $5 million price tag.

If Paladin wins as the most probable outcome and Courting continues progressing, the exacta should return stronger value than a straight win wager.

Final Verdict

Can Golden Tempo stay undefeated?

Yes — if he takes another step forward and Paladin regresses.

But today he faces a colt who has already run faster, already won at the Grade 2 level, and already proven he can finish at nine furlongs.

Until Golden Tempo defeats that level of established class, the edge goes to Paladin.

Play: Exacta — Paladin over Courting.