2026 Kentucky Derby Recap and Preakness Stakes Implications: What a 23-1 Shocker Tells Us About the Preakness
By Tom | Trackside Profits
The Wildest Kentucky Derby in Recent Memory
Saturday's Kentucky Derby will be talked about for years.
The winner, Golden Tempo, paid 23-1. The horse who finished third had never won a race in his life. And the two horses sitting dead last in the early stages? They came running to finish first and second.
To the casual observer, it looked like chaos. To anyone who handicaps for a living, it was something different entirely. It was information.
At TracksideProfits, we cashed six winners across the 14-race Derby Day card, hit two exactas, and landed a 242-to-1 trifecta. More importantly, this race told us exactly how to approach the Preakness Stakes — and where the betting public is about to get it wrong again.
How Golden Tempo Won the 2026 Kentucky Derby
Expect to hear plenty of voices over the next two weeks calling Golden Tempo's win a fluke or a lottery ticket.
Watch the replay, It wasn't.
The Pace Collapsed — That's the Whole Story
The horses on or near the lead went too fast, too early. The pressure never relented. One by one, turning for home, the front-runners began to back up.
In a 20-horse field, when the pace falls apart like that, you get a chain reaction. Everything disintegrates late, and horses who looked beaten on the backstretch suddenly look like world-beaters.
That's how Golden Tempo won.
That's how Renegade came flying from the back of the pack to finish second.
And that's how a maiden — a horse who had never won a race in his life — finished third in the most famous horse race in America. Ocelli, running third in the Kentucky Derby as a maiden. Let that sink in for a second.
The only horse close to the pace who showed any finishing ability was Danon Bourbon, the Japanese shipper who hung on for fifth. Everyone else who was near the front early was completely cooked.
The Beyer Figure Tells You Everything
Golden Tempo's Beyer Speed Figure came back at 95.
For context, the Beyer par is a 103, so that's light for a Kentucky Derby winner. A 95 doesn't tell the story of a generational three-year-old throwing down a dominant performance. It tells the story of a race that fell apart and a horse with the right setup taking full advantage.
That distinction matters enormously when we look ahead to Baltimore.
Why We Said Golden Tempo was a Value Play
Golden Tempo wasn't our top pick. But he was one of three horses we flagged in a Derby preview video titled ‘The Public Is WRONG About These 3 Kentucky Derby Horses’ — meaning people had underestimated his actual probability of winning.
Derby Day creates a unique edge: a tidal wave of uninformed money pours into races most casual bettors handicap exactly once a year.
The result on our card:
6 winners across 14 races
2 exactas
1 trifecta
Preakness Stakes 2026 Implications
Here's where most fans are going to completely misread what just happened in Louisville. And that's exactly where the opportunity lives.
Why You Shouldn't Bet Golden Tempo at Short Odds in the Preakness
Golden Tempo is possibly running in the Preakness. Trainer Cherie Devaux has already pointed to Maryland, and the horse came out of the Derby in good order.
He'll get the publicity. He'll get the coverage. And the money will follow.
Here's the problem with backing him at a short price:
The Preakness is not the Kentucky Derby.
Smaller field. More controlled pace. The complete front-end meltdown that handed Golden Tempo a perfect setup in Louisville almost never repeats itself at Pimlico. When the setup changes — and it almost certainly will — the result changes with it.
That cracks the door wide open for a completely different type of horse to win.
The Name You Need to Know: Crude Velocity
Crude Velocity ran on the Derby undercard in the Pat Day Mile. He didn't just win. He ran the mile in 1:33 and change and earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure.
That's five points — roughly two and a half lengths — faster than what just won the Kentucky Derby.
Bob Baffert has mentioned the Preakness as the target. Ownership is pointing the same direction. And before the Pat Day Mile was even over, Crude Velocity was sitting around 5-to-1 in the Preakness future pool.
The Local Horses
Pay attention to Taj Mahal and The Hell We Did.
Both are already training over the Laurel Park surface while Pimlico finishes renovations. The public consistently undervalues horses who don't have to ship, don't have to adjust to a new track, and get to keep their routines intact heading into a Triple Crown race.
If either of these local horses has the talent to compete, the logistical edge is real — and the market is currently ignoring it.
A Deep, Wide-Open Field
There are roughly 16 probables right now — more than in most recent Preakness runnings. If most of them decide to enter, this becomes a deep, complex race with multiple legitimate overlays.
That's not a problem. That's the entire opportunity.
Get the Full Preakness Card Blueprint
The full Preakness card blueprint is available to reserve now:
Race-by-race breakdowns for the entire card
Top picks and contenders
Pace scenarios and projected setups
Full-card betting plays (Win, Exacta, Trifecta for every race + the Late Pick 5)
Price: $24.99 (marked down from $29.99 race week)
We're looking to carry the Derby Day momentum straight into the Preakness.
→ Reserve your copy here before it goes up race week.
