#5 | Baeza
#5 Baeza
Consistent, but Not Winning
Baeza is an interesting fifth-place horse because his best races put him right in the Classic conversation, but his recent form hasn't quite matched the top four.
He has been one of the most consistent horses in this group without consistently finding the winner's circle. His most recent win came more than a year ago.
- Sept. 20, 2025 · Parx Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby WON His most recent win. Career-best 105 Beyer.
- 2026 · Churchill Downs Grade 1 Stephen Foster 2ND Missed the break, rallied to finish second to Magnitude and ahead of Sovereignty. 112 Equibase Speed Figure.
- Aug. 8 · Saratoga Grade 1 Whitney 4TH Fourth behind Sovereignty. 103 Beyer.
Where Baeza's Beyers Stand
Beyer Speed Figures only
Bars start at a baseline of 90 to make the gap between figures easier to see.
The Biggest Issue: His Starts
Baeza has repeatedly produced strong late rallies, but he has also been slow away from the gate. That showed up again in the Stephen Foster, where he missed the break and had to make up ground against Magnitude.
He missed the break in the Stephen Foster and still finished ahead of Sovereignty.
Trainer Bill Mott has specifically spent time schooling him in the gate. If that work pays off, a clean start could be worth real lengths.
How the Pace Could Help or Hurt Him
That's also what makes the upcoming Classic interesting. Baeza is a closer, so the pace scenario matters more for him than for most of this field.
A contentious pace
- Speed horses press each other early
- The leaders tire in the stretch
- Baeza's late rally comes into play
Comfortable leaders
- The front-runners get easy fractions
- Nobody backs up late
- Baeza is too far back turning for home
Earlier in this series, #3 Knightsbridge and #4 Magnitude both showed they like to be on or near the lead. If they end up pressing each other, the race could set up for a closer like Baeza.
The Mott Barn Connection
There's also a strong connection within the Mott barn. Here's how the jockeys line up:
| Horse | Recent jockey | Running style |
|---|---|---|
| #2 Sovereignty | Junior Alvarado | Powerful finishing kick |
| #3 Knightsbridge | Junior Alvarado | Natural early speed |
| #5 Baeza | Flavien Prat | Closer |
Alvarado has ridden Baeza before, however, and was listed as his jockey for the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
A Pedigree Loaded With Stamina
Baeza has already shown he can compete with essentially this level of horse, and his pedigree is loaded with Classic stamina. He's a half-brother to two recent Triple Crown race winners:
What Has to Go Right
For me, the question is whether Baeza can finally put all three of these together against this year's Classic field:
✔ The Case For
- Second to Magnitude in the Stephen Foster, ahead of Sovereignty
- Strong late rally that fits a contentious pace
- Pedigree loaded with Classic stamina
- Grade 1 winner in the 2025 Pennsylvania Derby
- Consistent against top company
✖ The Concern
- Repeatedly slow away from the gate
- Career-best Beyer of 105 trails the top four
- Hasn't won since September 2025
- Needs the pace to fall apart
The Bottom Line
If a clean break, a forward enough trip and his peak finish all happen in the Classic, his best form makes him dangerous.
Until we see another breakthrough performance, fifth feels appropriate.
Watch: Baeza's Pennsylvania Derby Win
Want to watch the race again? Here's his most recent win, the 2025 Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby, which produced his career-best 105 Beyer.
Watch the late rally. That's the finish he'll need at Keeneland, as long as he breaks cleanly.
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Where does Baeza rank in the Breeders' Cup Classic Power Rankings?
#5. His best races put him in the Classic conversation, including a second to Magnitude in the Stephen Foster, but his recent form hasn't matched the top four.
What is Baeza's best Beyer Speed Figure?
105, earned winning the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby on Sept. 20, 2025. His 112 in the Stephen Foster was an Equibase Speed Figure, a different scale.
Why does Baeza have trouble at the start?
He has been slow away from the gate in several races, including the Stephen Foster, where he missed the break. Trainer Bill Mott has spent time schooling him in the gate.
Who is Baeza related to?
He's a half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch.
