The Breeders’ Cup Classic Horse Everyone’s Overlooking
Back in March, Magnitude went to Dubai and beat the best dirt horse on the planet, and he did it from the front. In June, he came home and put more than five lengths on last year's Horse of the Year.
Yet heading into the Breeders' Cup Classic, he's only the fifth choice. The reason comes down to one rough afternoon at Saratoga.
Here's why the market has cooled on him, what makes him a threat at Keeneland, the questions he still has to answer, and the price where I'd step in.
The marketWhy He's Being Overlooked
When the final Breeders' Cup Classic future pool closed, Magnitude sat fifth at 7-1. Forever Young was the 5-2 favorite and Sovereignty was second choice. That's an odd order, because Magnitude has already beaten both of them this year.
It all traces back to the Whitney. On August 8 at Saratoga, he went off the 9-5 favorite and finished sixth of seven, beaten 15¼ lengths, while Sovereignty cruised.
The replay tells the story. The champion filly Nitrogen beat him to the lead, and the pair went three-quarters in 1:09 and change, a hot pace for a mile and an eighth. Magnitude was forced to chase, started backing up on the far turn, and was done from there. Steve Asmussen said the horse never looked comfortable, and he came out of the race healthy.
One bad race and the market moved on. But one afternoon doesn't erase what he did in the spring.
Why the price is interestingThe Résumé
Dubai World Cup · March 28
Forever Young arrived as the world's top-rated dirt horse: a two-time Saudi Cup winner, the defending Breeders' Cup Classic champion, and odds-on. Magnitude was 7½-1.
Jose Ortiz broke him from the rail, put him on the lead, and never gave it up. Forever Young sat on his outside the entire way and loomed turning for home, but Magnitude kept finding more and held him off by about a length.
It wasn't a level playing field, either. Forever Young had already won the UAE Derby over that track, and Dubai is a far shorter trip from Japan than from the U.S. Magnitude was the one who shipped halfway around the world, and he still won.
Stephen Foster · Churchill Downs, June
Three months later he faced reigning Horse of the Year Sovereignty, plus Baeza and former Classic winner White Abarrio. Magnitude went gate to wire again, and Sovereignty finished third, more than five lengths behind.
Even so, that's two Grade 1 wins over two of the best horses in the world. Talent is not the question here.
Why he's dangerousThe Keeneland Setup
The Classic is at Keeneland, roughly an hour from Churchill Downs, where he won the Foster. After Dubai, this is practically a home game.
Keeneland's track has also suited horses who run like him. The Classic has been held there three times, and every winner was either the pacesetter or right on top of it early.
Then there's how he's being prepared. Rather than run him back after the Whitney, Asmussen is training him straight into the Classic, and Magnitude's record says that's the right call: he's 5-for-5 when returning from a break of two months or more, the Foster off the Dubai trip included. This owner and trainer used the same path with Gun Runner in 2017, going from Dubai to the Foster to a Classic win, and Gun Runner won that Classic on the lead.
He also keeps Jose Ortiz, who's in the middle of a career year: the Kentucky Derby and Belmont aboard Golden Tempo, the Kentucky Oaks, and both of Magnitude's big wins. With this horse, the opening quarter-mile decides everything, and Ortiz is riding with total confidence right now.
The honest partWhat I Still Need to See
The pattern is impossible to miss. In Dubai he led and won. In the Foster he led and won. In the Whitney he couldn't get the lead and lost by fifteen.
His best races have all come on the lead. The Classic will be full of horses who want that same spot.
The Classic can draw up to fourteen, and plenty of them like to be up front. Knightsbridge races on or near the lead. Forged Steel won the Hollywood Gold Cup gate to wire and just took the Goodwood. Phileas Fogg shot straight to the front in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
If they all run, you get a fast pace in a big field, which is basically the Whitney with more horses. Magnitude has shown he can sit just off the pace and still finish, but every one of his top efforts has come on the lead.
So before he becomes an official bet, I need three answers when entries come out:
- Does Knightsbridge go to the Dirt Mile?It's under consideration. One less speed horse helps a lot.
- How many need-the-lead horses actually enter?Forged Steel and Phileas Fogg are the ones to watch.
- Does Magnitude draw a post where Ortiz can clear the speed early?The first quarter-mile is his whole race.
Betting angleWhere the Price Becomes a Bet
If the speed is light and he draws well, I want him at anything close to 7-1. If Knightsbridge, Forged Steel and Phileas Fogg all line up, I need more, something like 8-1 or better, to get paid for the pace risk.
His talent is proven. The open question is race shape, and we won't know that until entries are drawn. So I'm not betting him on talent alone. I'm waiting for the right setup at the right price, the same way I approach every bet.
The same process, every week
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Bottom lineFinal Take
Magnitude for the Classic
- ✓Talent Two G1 wins over Forever Young and Sovereignty
- ✓Setup Short ship, speed-friendly track, 5 for 5 off a layoff
- ?Race shape Needs the lead; answered when entries come out
- $Price ~7-1 with light speed, 8-1+ if the speed shows up
Magnitude has already beaten the top two choices in this race this year. The Whitney showed what happens when he can't get his trip, but Dubai and the Foster showed what happens when he does.
If he gets his trip, 7-1 is going to look generous.
Prices shown are my own betting thresholds, not official odds. There are no guaranteed winners. Wager responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
