Champagne Stakes Picks | Next Derby Star?
- 1#5 U.S.S. ValorTop Pick · Shug McGaughey / Manny Franco
- 2#3 GaudreauChad Brown / Flavien Prat
- 3#2 RakuKelly Breen / Paco Lopez
U.S.S. Valor is the horse I believe is most likely to win the Champagne Stakes, and what makes him especially interesting is that we're not just looking at a horse who might be good enough someday. Based on what he already did in his second career start, he may already be running fast enough to compete with some of the better 3-year-olds come Derby time.
The Champagne is a Grade 1, one-turn mile for 2-year-olds, a "Win and You're In" for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and an official Kentucky Derby points race. Six go to post. Here's how I see it.
| PP | Horse | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Hockey | Antonio Arriaga | Katie Davis |
| 2 | Raku #3 Pick | Kelly Breen | Paco Lopez |
| 3 | Gaudreau #2 Pick | Chad Brown | Flavien Prat |
| 4 | Club Reign | Whit Beckman | Edgard Zayas |
| 5 | U.S.S. Valor Top Pick | Shug McGaughey | Manny Franco |
| 6 | Earth Song | Jorge Delgado | Ricardo Santana Jr. |
Top Pick#5 U.S.S. Valor
His last race was an absolutely dominant performance. Going seven furlongs at Saratoga, U.S.S. Valor won by 13¼ lengths, stopped the clock in 1:22.04, and earned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure. That is currently the highest Beyer earned by any 2-year-old this year.
Even more impressive, he wasn't being desperately ridden through the stretch. Once he put the field away, the race was essentially over.
That 105 Beyer is a huge number for a horse making only his second career start. The crazy part to me is that U.S.S. Valor doesn't necessarily need to make another massive jump forward right now. If he can simply maintain something close to that level as the competition gets tougher and the distances get longer, he already has the raw ability to put himself squarely into the early 2027 Kentucky Derby conversation.
Built to stretch out
And his pedigree gives me reason to believe stretching out shouldn't be a problem.
U.S.S. Valor is by War of Will, who won the 2019 Preakness Stakes going 1 3/16 miles and was a legitimate Triple Crown-level dirt horse. War of Will himself is by War Front and out of a Sadler's Wells mare, so there is plenty of class and stamina built into the top half of this pedigree.
On the bottom side, U.S.S. Valor is out of Spangled Banner, a daughter of Tiz Wonderful. The family has also produced horses capable of handling route distances, including his half-brother Expressman, who competed successfully out around nine furlongs. So from a pedigree standpoint, I'm not looking at U.S.S. Valor as a horse whose brilliance is necessarily limited to sprinting.
The key matchupThe Gaudreau Rematch
The biggest reason I don't want to completely dismiss Gaudreau is what happened when these two met in their career debuts.
Back on August 8, Gaudreau beat U.S.S. Valor by only three-quarters of a length going 6½ furlongs. U.S.S. Valor drew the rail, settled sixth early, encountered some trouble approaching the stretch, and still came flying late to finish third. Gaudreau won the race with an 89 Beyer.
Watching that race, I thought U.S.S. Valor needed more room to really make his run through the stretch. He never had the completely clean opportunity that you would want, but he still finished strongly.
Then look what happened when they stretched him out just another half-furlong.
U.S.S. Valor went from losing his debut by less than a length to absolutely destroying his next field by more than 13 lengths. That's an enormous improvement between starts.
From a troubled ¾-length loss to a 13¼-length romp, one start later.
Saturday's Champagne stretches him another furlong, from seven furlongs to one mile, and if the U.S.S. Valor we saw last time shows up again, that performance would make him extremely difficult for this field to beat.
This is our first real opportunity to see whether that huge maiden performance translates against better competition.
Betting angleWhy Price Matters
I don't think this is a race where you blindly take U.S.S. Valor regardless of the odds.
These horses are extremely young and lightly raced, which means volatility is much higher than it is with older, established horses. One 2-year-old can improve 10 or 15 points between starts while another can regress just as quickly.
And Gaudreau deserves a lot of respect. He already beat U.S.S. Valor once, and he keeps the combination of Flavien Prat and Chad Brown. Gaudreau showed speed in that first race, pressing a fast opening quarter before taking over and holding off U.S.S. Valor and Coach Pope.
Race shapePace Could Decide This Race
Another reason I'm interested in U.S.S. Valor is the potential pace setup. All six horses in this field have shown a willingness to race on or relatively close to the lead, which creates the possibility of a legitimately fast early pace.
Gaudreau has natural speed. Club Reign pressed the pace in his debut. Earth Song pressed before drawing away. Johnny Hockey has shown speed. Raku has raced forward. And U.S.S. Valor himself dueled for the early lead last time.
But U.S.S. Valor has already shown us something very important that some of these others haven't.
He doesn't have to have the lead.
In his debut, U.S.S. Valor was back in sixth early and still produced a strong finish. That gives Manny Franco options. I would actually prefer to see him avoid getting involved in a suicidal speed duel Saturday. Let some of these other horses fight for position, sit just behind them, and see whether that 105-Beyer talent is still there when they straighten for home.
Gaudreau has a similar tactical advantage because he has Flavien Prat. Prat is one of the best riders in the country at reading pace. If everyone around him gets aggressive early, he's more than capable of taking Gaudreau back slightly, letting the race develop in front of him, and conserving enough horse for the stretch.
That's one of the biggest reasons I see this race coming down to U.S.S. Valor and Gaudreau.
Third contender#2 Raku
My third horse is Raku. He's a little different from the top two because I don't think he possesses the same natural early speed. That's probably not a bad thing in this particular race. Raku needs to settle early and let some of these faster horses go.
What interests me is how dramatically he improved when he was finally stretched out. He began his career sprinting five furlongs, but last time he went to a two-turn mile in the Sapling Stakes and nearly won, finishing second by just a nose.
His recent training also gives me enough confidence that another step forward is possible. The problem is that he needs that improvement.
U.S.S. Valor doesn't. That's the major distinction.
If U.S.S. Valor reproduces his last performance, Raku has to run considerably faster than he ever has before to beat him. But if U.S.S. Valor regresses off that monster effort, Gaudreau doesn't improve stretching out, and the pace gets too aggressive, Raku becomes a very interesting horse to pick up the pieces late.
Bottom lineFinal Take
My rankings
- 1#5 U.S.S. Valor Already fast enough
- 2#3 Gaudreau Beat him once; Prat can rate
- 3#2 Raku Picks up the pieces if the pace melts
U.S.S. Valor is my most likely winner because we've already seen a performance from him that would be extremely difficult for the rest of this field to match.
He improved from a troubled three-quarter-length defeat behind Gaudreau in his debut to a 13¼-length destruction with a 105 Beyer one start later. Now he gets more distance, his pedigree suggests longer races should be within his scope, and he's already demonstrated that he can race from behind horses instead of requiring the lead.
And that's why I'm looking at U.S.S. Valor as more than just my Champagne Stakes pick. I'm looking at him as an early 2027 Kentucky Derby contender.
Because if a horse this early in his 2-year-old season can simply maintain approximately what we already saw at Saratoga as the distances increase and the competition improves, he doesn't need some massive developmental leap to get into the Derby picture.
He's already fast enough. The question now is whether he can do it again.
There are no guaranteed winners. Wager responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
