One beat the Classic favorite this year. Another just won at the exact track and distance he runs next. And the betting public is going to let both of them go off at a price.
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Favorites win Breeders' Cup races. Longshots are what make the tickets pay. One horse in the Classic field beat the favorite this year and is still being treated like an afterthought. Another just won over the exact course and distance he runs next. And the crowd is going to let both of them go off at a price.
Here are four horses who can blow up their races at Keeneland, how I'm using each one, and the horse I like most, saved for last. He's beaten the two biggest names in the Classic.
Side by sideThe Four at a Glance
| Horse | Race | Why he's live | The risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Force Noir | Juv. Turf Sprint | Neck loser in a Group 1 | Pace pressure |
| Joe Shiesty | Turf Sprint | Won the prep over this course | Deep, proven field |
| Further Ado | Dirt Mile or Classic | 2-for-2 at Keeneland | Race choice, rider |
| Magnitude | Classic | Beat Forever Young and Sovereignty | Two bad Saratoga races |
1 · Friday's openerForce Noir
The first longshot runs in the first Breeders' Cup race of the weekend. Friday's Juvenile Turf Sprint drew 28 pre-entries for just 12 spots, and in a field that deep, the horse I keep coming back to is an Irish 2-year-old named Force Noir.
His last start was the Group 1 Middle Park at Newmarket on September 26, one of the most important 2-year-old sprints in Europe. He went off at 28-1 and lost by a neck to Orthodox. Running that close at that level, at that price, says he's better than the market thinks.
Friday sets up for him, too. He drops from 6 furlongs to 5½, and he has real speed: he won his maiden at Naas by 4¼ lengths, leading the whole way. The detail I like most is the turn. Many European juveniles have raced only on straight courses, so the first turn they ever see comes in a Grade 1. Force Noir has already raced around a left-handed turn at Dundalk. In a race that's over in about a minute, that matters.
Why won't he be the favorite? Libertango. She was 2nd to Sun Goddess, Europe's top juvenile filly, in the Cheveley Park, and she's the last horse to beat Sun Goddess, in the Albany at Royal Ascot. Flavien Prat picks up the ride. She'll take the money, and she deserves to.
2 · The course specialistJoe Shiesty
Force Noir is still improving. Joe Shiesty doesn't need to. He just has to repeat what he did at Keeneland four weeks ago.
On October 3, the 5-year-old gelding won the Grade 2 Woodford at 5½ furlongs on the Keeneland turf. The Turf Sprint is 5½ furlongs on the Keeneland turf. Same course, same distance, same meet. And because the Woodford is a Win and You're In race, his spot is already paid for.
He's a Kentucky horse through and through. He's named after Joe Burrow's nickname, and he's only ever raced in Kentucky, at all five of the state's tracks. Trainer Eric Foster co-owns him with his family and partners. He needed surgery after the 2024 fall meet, and Foster gave him time. He came back from 195 days off to win the Mighty Beau at Churchill, then went gate to wire in the Big Daddy at Turfway in March, winning by 6¼ lengths.
Here's the part of the story nobody's talking about. Less than an hour before he won the Woodford, his half-sister Brickyard Belle won the Grade 3 Matron at Belmont. Their dam, Ready to Unleash, was bought for $8,000. That's two graded stakes wins in one afternoon from an $8,000 mare.
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3 · The multi-race keyFurther Ado
Further Ado has an even better Keeneland record than Joe Shiesty. He's 2-for-2 over the track, including a 20-length maiden win at 2 and the Grade 1 Blue Grass by 11 lengths in April. The problem: his connections haven't decided which race he's running in.
He's pre-entered in both the Classic and the Dirt Mile. After his final breeze on October 24 (5 furlongs in 1:00.40 at Churchill Downs, 4th-fastest of 38), Spendthrift general manager Ned Toffey said they're "leaning toward the Classic, but the Dirt Mile is definitely still an option." That gets decided at Monday's entries.
I'm hoping for the Dirt Mile. In the Classic, the question is 1¼ miles. His last start was a half-length 2nd to The Puma at 1⅛ miles, and his only try at 1¼ was the Kentucky Derby. Cox believes he can handle more distance with the right setup, and maybe he can. In the Dirt Mile, that question disappears: you get a horse who's perfect at this track, at a distance he's proven at, in the race that opens Saturday's early multi-race sequences.
4 · The one I like mostMagnitude
That brings us to the horse from the very first line. Magnitude is the only horse in the Classic who has beaten both big names this year. He beat Forever Young by a length in the Dubai World Cup, and he beat Sovereignty in the Stephen Foster. Forever Young, the defending champion, was the 5-2 favorite in the final Classic future pool. Magnitude closed at 7-1.
So why is the horse who beat both of them priced like that? Saratoga. His two worst races both came there: 3rd, beaten more than 20 lengths, in last year's Travers, and 6th in this year's Whitney after stumbling at the start. The crowd remembers those. I'm drawing a line through them, because everywhere else he's been one of the fastest horses in training.
The other knock is that both big wins came on the lead. That's fair. But he's shown he can sit just off the pace and pounce, and with Napoleon Solo, Forever Young and possibly Knightsbridge all comfortable near the front, he may not have to do the dirty work early. He looked sharp in his final breeze, going 5 furlongs in 1:01⅕ over the Keeneland surface on October 24. Asmussen said he "handles the racetrack extremely well."
Then there's Sovereignty. He missed the Jockey Club Gold Cup with a foot abscess and comes in with less foundation than his camp wanted. His final work is set for Sunday at Keeneland. If he's even slightly short, the door opens wider for the horse who has already beaten him.
Ticket rolesHow I'm Using All Four
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Who's your longshot this weekend? The draw on Monday will show us which of these prices hold up.
Quick answersBreeders' Cup Longshots FAQ
Who has beaten Forever Young and Sovereignty in 2026?
Magnitude. He beat Forever Young by a length in the Dubai World Cup in March and beat Sovereignty in the Stephen Foster in June. He closed at 7-1 in the final Breeders' Cup Classic future pool, with Forever Young at 5-2.
Is Further Ado running in the Classic or the Dirt Mile?
He's pre-entered in both, and Spendthrift says it's leaning toward the Classic, with the Dirt Mile still an option. The decision comes at entries on Monday, October 26. Irad Ortiz Jr., his expected rider, is out after breaking his ankle on October 22.
Who won the Woodford at Keeneland in 2026?
Joe Shiesty, on October 3. The Woodford is a Win and You're In race for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, which is run over the same 5½-furlong Keeneland turf course.
When is the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint?
Friday, October 30, 2026, at Keeneland. It's the first Breeders' Cup race of the weekend, run at 5½ furlongs on turf, and it drew 28 pre-entries for 12 spots.
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Race details as of October 24, 2026, from DRF, TDN, Horse Racing Nation, the Paulick Report, America's Best Racing and Sporting Life. Race choices, riders and fields can change at Monday's entries and draw. There are no guaranteed winners. Wager responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
